Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132023 230925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.7  26.5  19.4  27.5  18.7  24.2  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  70.0  22.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  71.0  86.0  37.0  70.0  88.0 127.0 116.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  87.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       22.7%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%       10.2%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       10.0%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        9.8%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       25.8%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       15.9%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%       10.1%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%       22.8%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 WP132023 230925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.7  26.5  19.4  27.5  18.7  24.2  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  87.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%