Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132023 230926 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 106.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 30.2 25.8 26.8 31.7 21.7 32.3 26.0 U N N N U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.0 54.0 78.0 31.0 U U U U N N N U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 72.0 70.0 76.0 82.0 106.0 91.0 66.0 N N N N N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 92.0 92.0 91.0 87.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 2.3% 11.5% 6.9% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 4.3% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 3.8% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 12.4% 6.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 8.1% 6.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 3.8% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 3.4% 13.7% 8.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.98 WP132023 230926 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 106.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 30.2 25.8 26.8 31.7 21.7 32.3 26.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 92.0 92.0 91.0 87.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%