Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.0  19.7  16.1  16.1  16.1  16.1  16.1  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  71.0  77.0  86.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -19.0  -8.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        9.2%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        5.7%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        7.5%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP142023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.0  19.7  16.1  16.1  16.1  16.1  16.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%