Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    154.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  10.0  12.4  12.6  13.1  13.5  19.1  17.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0 100.0 101.0 101.0  88.0  72.0  97.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  93.0  98.0 107.0 113.0 157.0 147.0 153.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%       13.0%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       52.0%       75.2%       63.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.8%       59.2%       41.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       56.7%       33.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       55.9%       32.6%
 45kt / 36h       49.0%       88.4%       68.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       79.4%       39.7%
 55kt / 48h       90.9%       90.9%       90.9%
 70kt / 48h       90.9%       84.6%       87.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       94.2%       78.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP152023 231007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    154.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  10.0  12.4  12.6  13.1  13.5  19.1  17.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%