Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.7  16.7  17.0  20.6  21.3  28.3  31.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0 103.0 109.0 113.0 112.0  95.0 114.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  80.0  91.0  63.0  72.0 101.0 129.0 137.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%       11.1%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       47.7%       67.3%       57.5%
 30kt / 24h       24.8%       47.2%       36.0%
 35kt / 24h       15.2%       45.0%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.2%       44.8%       30.0%
 45kt / 36h       42.5%       80.9%       61.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       65.0%       32.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.7%       34.8%       43.2%
 70kt / 48h       34.8%       65.3%       50.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       82.0%       71.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP152023 231007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.7  16.7  17.0  20.6  21.3  28.3  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%