Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231007 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 21.3 18.7 16.8 19.6 18.9 22.3 18.2 F N N F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 115.0 118.0 111.0 101.0 99.0 81.0 104.0 F F F F F F N F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 100.0 90.0 71.0 99.0 96.0 140.0 116.0 F F F N F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 78.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -5.0 -1.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.9% 14.0% 12.5% 25kt / 24h 56.5% 70.6% 63.5% 30kt / 24h 33.6% 51.0% 42.3% 35kt / 24h 26.4% 49.6% 38.0% 40kt / 24h 26.4% 49.6% 38.0% 45kt / 36h 50.5% 79.9% 65.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 62.1% 31.1% 55kt / 48h 58.4% 66.9% 62.6% 70kt / 48h 58.4% 65.9% 62.1% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 85.8% 73.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.90 WP152023 231007 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 153.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 21.3 18.7 16.8 19.6 18.9 22.3 18.2 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 78.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -5.0 -1.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%