Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    153.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.6  24.6  29.2  26.0  26.8  33.8  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0 110.0 115.0 114.0  88.0 112.0  82.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  59.0  68.0 136.0 104.0 100.0 137.0 142.0  N  N  N VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        6.9%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       31.6%       49.8%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       31.3%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       29.1%       17.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       26.9%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       26.0%       54.9%       40.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.0%       15.0%
 55kt / 48h       50.8%       42.7%       46.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       29.7%       27.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       53.5%       57.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP152023 231008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    153.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.6  24.6  29.2  26.0  26.8  33.8  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%