Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    152.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.6  20.3  24.1  16.8  29.1  24.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 114.0 102.0  88.0 113.0  84.0  93.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 111.0 134.0 118.0  97.0 104.0 128.0 123.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        8.1%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       46.8%       56.3%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       36.5%       28.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       35.6%       22.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       34.2%       20.8%
 45kt / 36h       41.2%       65.4%       53.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.2%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       49.6%       50.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       37.9%       31.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       63.6%       62.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP152023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    152.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.6  20.3  24.1  16.8  29.1  24.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%