Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231008 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 152.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 23.9 25.1 17.8 18.0 24.1 22.2 20.0 N N N F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 114.0 103.0 87.0 88.0 94.0 85.0 89.0 76.0 F F N F F N F N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 105.0 128.0 113.0 68.0 113.0 96.0 151.0 120.0 F F F N F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 77.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 61.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -7.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 N F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.5% 19.7% 19.1% 25kt / 24h 65.0% 74.1% 69.5% 30kt / 24h 40.2% 61.9% 51.0% 35kt / 24h 26.1% 61.9% 44.0% 40kt / 24h 18.2% 59.0% 38.6% 45kt / 36h 55.7% 79.9% 67.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 64.7% 32.4% 55kt / 48h 51.8% 65.6% 58.7% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 57.5% 41.2% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 73.1% 67.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP152023 231008 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 152.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 23.9 25.1 17.8 18.0 24.1 22.2 20.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 77.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 61.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -7.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 N U N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%