Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    151.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.3  13.1  12.4  23.4  31.6  27.4  26.8  N  N  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  78.0  81.0  96.0  82.0  92.0  89.0  71.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  82.0  54.0  66.0  90.0 132.0 120.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.3%       24.6%       24.4%
 25kt / 24h       72.5%       82.3%       77.4%
 30kt / 24h       52.4%       77.6%       65.0%
 35kt / 24h       50.0%       77.6%       63.8%
 40kt / 24h       19.3%       74.8%       47.1%
 45kt / 36h       59.1%       81.6%       70.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       69.5%       34.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.4%       64.2%       57.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       51.5%       38.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       61.2%       61.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP152023 231008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    151.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.3  13.1  12.4  23.4  31.6  27.4  26.8  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%