Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231009 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.80 150.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 16.0 13.0 16.7 21.7 26.1 27.4 21.9 N F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 89.0 104.0 99.0 89.0 98.0 86.0 66.0 N F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 69.0 56.0 98.0 98.0 159.0 104.0 88.0 F N N F F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 71.0 73.0 70.0 73.0 72.0 72.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.9% 27.9% 30.4% 25kt / 24h 76.0% 82.3% 79.2% 30kt / 24h 59.8% 78.8% 69.3% 35kt / 24h 56.4% 78.8% 67.6% 40kt / 24h 26.4% 76.1% 51.3% 45kt / 36h 60.5% 77.8% 69.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 63.5% 31.8% 55kt / 48h 51.5% 63.8% 57.6% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 47.3% 36.1% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 60.1% 61.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 WP152023 231009 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.80 150.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 16.0 13.0 16.7 21.7 26.1 27.4 21.9 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 71.0 73.0 70.0 73.0 72.0 72.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%