Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    149.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  10.7  15.0  18.7  27.6  22.1  20.9  29.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0 107.0  98.0  86.0 101.0  84.0  73.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  69.0  92.0  89.0 121.0 149.0  69.0  71.0  F  N  F  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.6%       34.3%       39.0%
 25kt / 24h       76.7%       80.4%       78.6%
 30kt / 24h       67.3%       75.4%       71.4%
 35kt / 24h       54.3%       75.4%       64.8%
 40kt / 24h       40.8%       74.6%       57.7%
 45kt / 36h       62.6%       67.0%       64.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       47.0%       23.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       58.4%       54.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       36.5%       30.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       47.1%       54.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP152023 231009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    149.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  10.7  15.0  18.7  27.6  22.1  20.9  29.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%