Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.0  17.9  18.7  18.6  21.3  22.8  32.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  86.0  96.0  94.0  75.0  61.0  56.0  45.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  86.0  79.0  97.0 117.0  75.0 103.0  -1.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.1%       31.9%       31.0%
 25kt / 24h       67.4%       76.3%       71.9%
 30kt / 24h       54.1%       70.8%       62.4%
 35kt / 24h       37.7%       70.8%       54.2%
 40kt / 24h       37.7%       69.7%       53.7%
 45kt / 36h       63.3%       65.8%       64.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.8%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       59.0%       55.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       31.1%       27.9%
 65kt / 72h       60.9%       33.8%       47.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP152023 231009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.0  17.9  18.7  18.6  21.3  22.8  32.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%