Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.3  14.6  17.9  26.4  14.0  28.2  27.5  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  98.0  94.0  84.0  66.0  58.0  55.0  41.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  72.0 125.0 153.0 135.0 106.0  71.0   3.0  N  N  F VF VF  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       78.3%       64.8%       71.6%
 25kt / 24h       94.3%       91.1%       92.7%
 30kt / 24h       94.3%       91.1%       92.7%
 35kt / 24h       94.3%       91.1%       92.7%
 40kt / 24h       94.3%       90.5%       92.4%
 45kt / 36h       84.9%       78.9%       81.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       65.4%       32.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.8%       70.2%       61.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.0%       45.1%       35.0%
 65kt / 72h       56.5%       36.5%       46.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP152023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.3  14.6  17.9  26.4  14.0  28.2  27.5  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%