Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231010 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 22.7 18.3 17.2 13.4 17.3 27.1 31.8 F N F F F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 103.0 105.0 92.0 83.0 66.0 57.0 47.0 36.0 F F F N N N N U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 112.0 111.0 92.0 122.0 92.0 83.0 71.0 F F F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 71.0 66.0 62.0 58.0 54.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 26.0 22.0 N N U N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 60.3% 36.7% 48.5% 25kt / 24h 78.9% 78.3% 78.6% 30kt / 24h 74.3% 74.4% 74.3% 35kt / 24h 61.7% 74.4% 68.0% 40kt / 24h 56.3% 74.1% 65.2% 45kt / 36h 75.8% 63.5% 69.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 43.1% 21.6% 55kt / 48h 51.3% 59.1% 55.2% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 26.1% 25.5% 65kt / 72h 59.4% 21.5% 40.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.76 WP152023 231010 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 22.7 18.3 17.2 13.4 17.3 27.1 31.8 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 71.0 66.0 62.0 58.0 54.0 45.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 26.0 22.0 N N F N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%