Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  17.1  16.9  15.8  15.4  24.1  31.7  40.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  89.0  83.0  77.0  60.0  58.0  40.0  30.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 143.0 160.0 145.0 129.0  93.0  42.0  45.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       50.5%       26.9%       38.7%
 25kt / 24h       76.6%       72.2%       74.4%
 30kt / 24h       69.4%       67.0%       68.2%
 35kt / 24h       57.4%       67.0%       62.2%
 40kt / 24h       57.4%       67.0%       62.2%
 45kt / 36h       71.7%       43.5%       57.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.7%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       50.6%       42.3%       46.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       11.2%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h       43.1%        8.2%       25.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 WP152023 231010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  17.1  16.9  15.8  15.4  24.1  31.7  40.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%