Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231010 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 144.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 90.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 16.3 14.4 16.5 21.2 28.2 32.6 43.7 N F F F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 92.0 84.0 80.0 71.0 60.0 45.0 33.0 19.0 F N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 59.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 103.0 129.0 106.0 111.0 55.0 15.0 36.0 VF F F F F N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 72.0 74.0 72.0 67.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 F N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 8.0 3.0 7.0 5.0 -6.0 -3.0 U N U N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 77.7% 45.2% 61.4% 25kt / 24h 84.2% 76.1% 80.2% 30kt / 24h 78.7% 74.8% 76.7% 35kt / 24h 70.0% 74.8% 72.4% 40kt / 24h 69.3% 72.0% 70.7% 45kt / 36h 96.9% 66.8% 81.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 52.7% 26.3% 55kt / 48h 46.5% 20.8% 33.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 WP152023 231010 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 144.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 16.3 14.4 16.5 21.2 28.2 32.6 43.7 N U U N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 72.0 74.0 72.0 67.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 U N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 8.0 3.0 7.0 5.0 -6.0 -3.0 F N F N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%