Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231011 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 21.8 28.6 21.9 40.1 48.1 59.7 80.3 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 64.0 51.0 40.0 31.0 15.0 9.0 1.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 -2.1 -4.3 -30.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 144.0 122.0 87.0 95.0 80.0 59.0 73.0 F VF F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 66.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 39.0 33.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 10.0 6.0 -23.0 -30.0 -63.0 -62.0 U N U N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP152023 231011 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 21.8 28.6 21.9 40.1 48.1 59.7 80.3 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 66.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 39.0 33.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 10.0 6.0 -23.0 -30.0 -63.0 -62.0 F N F N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5%