Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231012 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 26.2 21.6 24.8 46.6 52.4 71.2 81.1 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 48.0 38.0 34.0 29.0 13.0 7.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.3 0.7 -17.0 -59.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 146.0 130.0 95.0 119.0 99.0 101.0 106.0 80.0 VF F F F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 61.0 59.0 54.0 43.0 33.0 29.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 7.0 2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -8.0 -28.0 -30.0 U N N F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.30 WP152023 231012 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 26.2 21.6 24.8 46.6 52.4 71.2 81.1 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 61.0 59.0 54.0 43.0 33.0 29.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 7.0 2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -8.0 -28.0 -30.0 F N N U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.7% 4.9%