Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231012 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 143.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 23.9 26.1 36.4 45.7 69.0 89.8 107.8 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 39.0 27.0 28.0 13.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.1 -20.2 -75.0 -99.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 112.0 98.0 117.0 116.0 86.0 101.0 113.0 67.0 F F F F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 46.0 48.0 49.0 N N N U U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 7.0 -23.0 -33.0 -80.0 -80.0 -93.0 N N N VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP152023 231012 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 143.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 23.9 26.1 36.4 45.7 69.0 89.8 107.8 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 46.0 48.0 49.0 N N N F F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 7.0 -23.0 -33.0 -80.0 -80.0 -93.0 N N N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 10.9% 5.4%