Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  36.3  45.2  49.8  69.6  82.7  82.7  82.7  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  30.0  16.0  14.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  19.3  14.6   5.7 -12.0 -71.6 -71.6 -71.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 105.0 104.0 133.0 128.0 151.0 151.0 151.0  F  F  F VF  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0 -17.0 -25.0 -75.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0  N  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP152023 231012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  36.3  45.2  49.8  69.6  82.7  82.7  82.7  N  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0 -17.0 -25.0 -75.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.7%       32.3%       16.5%