Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231013 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 46.1 50.1 58.2 88.8 92.9 87.8 76.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 14.0 16.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 27.3 18.6 8.5 -43.2 -74.7 -79.4 -84.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 162.0 131.0 123.0 162.0 150.0 74.0 76.0 51.0 VF F F VF VF N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 51.0 45.0 45.0 49.0 57.0 54.0 U U U VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -9.0 -27.0 -61.0 -74.0 -57.0 3.0 -48.0 N F VF VF VF VF N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 WP152023 231013 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 46.1 50.1 58.2 88.8 92.9 87.8 76.7 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 51.0 45.0 45.0 49.0 57.0 54.0 F F F VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -9.0 -27.0 -61.0 -74.0 -57.0 3.0 -48.0 N U VU VU VU VU N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 33.9% 68.6% 51.3%