Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231013 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.4 48.7 63.3 82.6 93.5 96.9 81.1 64.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 14.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.1 31.5 16.2 3.0 -57.3 -66.0 -70.4 -68.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 115.0 118.0 139.0 131.0 136.0 69.0 75.0 16.0 F F VF F VF N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 50.0 51.0 48.0 51.0 62.0 61.0 53.0 U U U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -53.0 -93.0 -85.0 -44.0 -39.0 -20.0 -58.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 WP152023 231013 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.