Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231013 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 151.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.6 64.4 76.2 86.1 98.5 85.4 65.9 58.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.5 29.4 12.2 -30.4 -49.4 -53.6 -54.9 -51.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 116.0 157.0 129.0 135.0 137.0 68.0 17.0 -2.0 F VF F VF VF N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 49.0 49.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -97.0 -77.0-115.0 -18.0-124.0 -53.0 -75.0 -47.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.72 WP152023 231013 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 151.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100.