Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.1  80.1  87.7  95.0  92.7  73.3  59.6  55.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.0  19.2 -14.8 -29.4 -36.2 -39.6 -38.0 -36.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   164.0 131.0 158.0 141.0  97.0  52.0   0.0  12.0 VF  F VF VF  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  41.0  48.0  55.0  62.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -90.0 -87.0 -31.0  17.0 -65.0 -29.0 -46.0 -53.0 VF VF VF  U VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.64

 WP152023 231013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.