Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231014 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 71.4 87.0 92.2 98.3 79.3 60.1 61.0 54.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 -9.2 -20.8 -28.7 -30.3 -34.1 -30.5 -29.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 179.0 169.0 162.0 132.0 68.0 16.0 7.0 24.0 VF VF VF F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 52.0 61.0 68.0 VU U VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 29.0 -33.0 -65.0 5.0 -54.0 -37.0 -36.0 F VU VF VF N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.84 WP152023 231014 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.