Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231014 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 164.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 99.8 99.5 91.7 82.7 61.2 62.0 59.9 53.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -0.3 -7.9 -9.2 -11.9 -14.2 -11.8 -10.5 -12.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 170.0 120.0 88.0 53.0 15.0 23.0 8.0 14.0 VF F F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 45.0 44.0 49.0 60.0 66.0 71.0 U U VU VU U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -47.0 -80.0 -89.0 -5.0 -61.0 -19.0 -35.0 -58.0 VF VF VF F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.62 WP152023 231014 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 164.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.