Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152023 231014 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.40 168.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 98.7 96.1 85.2 79.6 71.4 67.0 59.5 51.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -16.0 -18.5 -20.2 -21.6 -20.5 -17.8 -18.8 -20.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 152.0 120.0 26.0 28.0 -2.0 14.0 35.0 84.0 VF F U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 51.0 59.0 65.0 68.0 U U VU VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -69.0 -56.0 -59.0-122.0-118.0-118.0 -52.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.14 WP152023 231014 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.40 168.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.