Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231017 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  11.7  11.1  13.3  13.5  22.0  25.2  34.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  30.0  51.0  52.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 130.1 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  31.0  40.0  19.0  27.0  40.0  38.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        7.2%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       55.5%       37.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       37.9%       23.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       36.9%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       36.2%       18.6%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       75.5%       48.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       61.1%       30.5%
 55kt / 48h       42.1%       52.7%       47.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       49.8%       37.2%
 65kt / 72h       42.2%       54.4%       48.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP162023 231017 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  11.7  11.1  13.3  13.5  22.0  25.2  34.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%