Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.4  17.1  11.6  16.8  19.6  24.2  26.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  41.0  23.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  66.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  40.0  20.0  35.0  63.0  52.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   1.0   6.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       31.6%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       16.4%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       16.1%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       16.1%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h       12.5%       43.7%       28.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.3%       11.7%
 55kt / 48h       23.8%       29.8%       26.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%       20.5%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h       32.6%       36.0%       34.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP162023 231017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.4  17.1  11.6  16.8  19.6  24.2  26.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   1.0   6.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%