Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.2  12.0  12.1  14.7  21.0  26.5  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  25.0  38.0  35.0  42.0  29.0  34.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  47.0  56.0  46.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        5.0%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       45.0%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       28.3%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       27.2%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       26.7%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%       56.4%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.2%       17.6%
 55kt / 48h       29.5%       39.9%       34.7%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%       26.7%       19.1%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%       35.9%       32.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP162023 231018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.2  12.0  12.1  14.7  21.0  26.5  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  69.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%