Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  14.7  16.6  19.8  28.8  30.9  33.0  27.3  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  67.0  68.0  59.0  54.0  47.0  53.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3 117.9 122.3 124.6 129.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  43.0  42.0  69.0  46.0  38.0  42.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%       11.9%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       27.1%       55.5%       41.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       39.2%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       38.7%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       37.6%       19.6%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%       54.6%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.0%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       21.5%       24.1%       22.8%
 70kt / 48h       15.3%       18.5%       16.9%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%       25.0%       27.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP162023 231018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  14.7  16.6  19.8  28.8  30.9  33.0  27.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%