Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231018 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.1  17.8  24.0  27.8  35.5  32.6  25.8  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  72.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 127.0 124.6 120.1 117.9 120.1 122.3 130.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  42.0  69.0  65.0  48.0  28.0  32.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  69.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%       11.9%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       51.6%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       34.7%       23.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       33.8%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       32.5%       17.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%       52.0%       32.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.1%       15.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%       18.2%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%       14.2%       13.3%
 65kt / 72h       26.9%       21.6%       24.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP162023 231018 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.1  17.8  24.0  27.8  35.5  32.6  25.8  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  69.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%