Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  17.0  22.5  24.4  30.8  30.8  26.3  23.1  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  67.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  78.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 127.0 122.3 120.1 120.1 122.3 129.3 130.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  52.0  63.0  39.0  35.0  47.0  16.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       24.3%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       12.1%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       10.7%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       10.7%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       21.1%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.1%        8.0%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        4.3%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       28.3%       13.9%       21.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP162023 231018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  17.0  22.5  24.4  30.8  30.8  26.3  23.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%