Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.6  24.6  27.0  35.3  30.7  26.5  19.2  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  58.0  83.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        122.3 117.9 115.7 115.7 115.7 122.3 129.3 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  55.0  49.0  54.0  29.0  15.0  -3.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        4.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       21.9%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%       11.0%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        9.5%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        9.2%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       19.1%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        5.8%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        3.7%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h       19.9%       12.9%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 WP162023 231019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.6  24.6  27.0  35.3  30.7  26.5  19.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%