Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  25.5  30.7  30.4  31.0  26.2  20.7  13.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  78.0  92.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 113.6 113.6 120.1 127.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  49.0  14.0  -4.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   6.0   9.0   9.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        7.5%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        7.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        3.0%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        1.7%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       26.0%       11.2%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 WP162023 231019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  25.5  30.7  30.4  31.0  26.2  20.7  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   6.0   9.0   9.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%