Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.7  32.6  35.3  29.3  25.5  22.0  20.7  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  29.0  46.0  58.0  64.0  81.0  95.0  91.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        117.9 117.9 115.7 113.6 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  48.0  55.0  20.0   7.0  12.0  24.0  33.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  13.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       11.5%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       13.6%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        5.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.4%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       23.0%       16.0%       19.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP162023 231019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.7  32.6  35.3  29.3  25.5  22.0  20.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  13.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%