Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  36.0  39.4  33.9  26.6  16.2  28.8  28.8  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  43.0  50.0  39.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 117.3 115.1 119.6 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  29.0  35.0  22.0   7.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  18.0  21.0  21.0  16.0   6.0   2.0   2.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        7.8%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        4.4%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.8%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP162023 231019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  36.0  39.4  33.9  26.6  16.2  28.8  28.8  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  18.0  21.0  21.0  16.0   6.0   2.0   2.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        4.3%        0.1%        2.2%