Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  44.4  46.6  44.2  29.2  11.4  11.4  11.4  U VU VU VU  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  40.0  54.0  68.0  18.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  18.0  23.0  17.0  11.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  10.0  12.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 WP162023 231020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  44.4  46.6  44.2  29.2  11.4  11.4  11.4  F VF VF VF  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  10.0  12.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.0%        0.3%        2.6%