Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  32.9  30.7  30.2  18.7  16.2   9.6  12.1  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  85.0  33.0  25.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 125.1 127.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  16.0   7.0   3.0  21.0  34.0  27.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       19.6%        7.8%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 WP162023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  32.9  30.7  30.2  18.7  16.2   9.6  12.1  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%