Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162023 231020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  27.1  24.3  17.2  17.2  17.2  17.2  17.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  82.0  96.0  89.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   6.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.1%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        3.6%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        7.3%        7.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 WP162023 231020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  27.1  24.3  17.2  17.2  17.2  17.2  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%