Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172023 231116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.90    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  35.7  34.0  38.5  41.6  36.5  37.8  29.5  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  40.0  37.0  39.0  60.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  59.0  54.0  60.0  81.0  49.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.9%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%        7.0%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.08

 WP172023 231116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.90    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  35.7  34.0  38.5  41.6  36.5  37.8  29.5  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%