Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182023 231220 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  20.2  24.4  27.1  23.5  24.4  20.0  15.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  23.0  20.0  19.0  16.0  29.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 147.0 144.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  84.0 103.0 128.0 120.0 124.0 143.0 159.0  N  N  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  80.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  84.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       14.0%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       25.1%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%       14.0%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        9.7%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       42.7%       42.0%       42.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP182023 231220 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  20.2  24.4  27.1  23.5  24.4  20.0  15.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  80.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  84.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%