Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182023 231220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  28.7  25.9  27.7  30.9  29.9  26.1  24.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  21.0  20.0  17.0  12.0   9.0  21.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 139.6 124.4 126.5 132.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 126.0 133.0 124.0 146.0 175.0 153.0  81.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  75.0  79.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   4.0   6.0  12.0  13.0  10.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       13.4%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       18.6%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        7.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       15.2%       19.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP182023 231220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  28.7  25.9  27.7  30.9  29.9  26.1  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  75.0  79.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   4.0   6.0  12.0  13.0  10.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%