Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012024 240617 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 93.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 15.5 15.5 18.1 20.2 20.4 31.5 38.3 F F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 31.0 33.0 34.0 41.0 49.0 31.0 15.0 U U U U N N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 122.3 120.1 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 109.0 94.0 71.0 45.0 31.0 16.0 -16.0 N F F N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 76.0 69.0 66.0 68.0 64.0 69.0 72.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -13.0 -17.0 N F N N F N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 4.6% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 19.4% 40.5% 30.0% 30kt / 24h 9.1% 22.7% 15.9% 35kt / 24h 4.1% 22.7% 13.4% 40kt / 24h 4.1% 22.7% 13.4% 45kt / 36h 16.9% 45.0% 31.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 23.2% 11.6% 55kt / 48h 24.9% 29.8% 27.4% 70kt / 48h 11.4% 21.0% 16.2% 65kt / 72h 11.4% 21.3% 16.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.56 AL012024 240617 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 93.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 15.5 15.5 18.1 20.2 20.4 31.5 38.3 N U U N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 76.0 69.0 66.0 68.0 64.0 69.0 72.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -13.0 -17.0 N U N N U N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%