Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012024 240618 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 93.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 12.6 13.8 12.4 18.0 21.5 37.8 43.6 F F F F F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 31.0 32.0 32.0 45.0 46.0 21.0 15.0 U U U U N N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 127.0 124.6 122.3 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 58.0 77.0 73.0 22.0 68.0 10.0 49.0 F N N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 74.0 70.0 72.0 70.0 72.0 75.0 77.0 F N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -8.0 -1.0 1.0 -10.0 8.0 -16.0 -20.0 N F N N F U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 3.9% 3.1% 25kt / 24h 17.1% 37.2% 27.1% 30kt / 24h 9.1% 20.2% 14.6% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 20.2% 12.2% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 20.2% 11.1% 45kt / 36h 17.6% 40.8% 29.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 20.1% 10.1% 55kt / 48h 24.1% 26.1% 25.1% 70kt / 48h 12.4% 16.9% 14.6% 65kt / 72h 9.6% 16.3% 12.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 AL012024 240618 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 93.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 12.6 13.8 12.4 18.0 21.5 37.8 43.6 U U U U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 74.0 70.0 72.0 70.0 72.0 75.0 77.0 U N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -8.0 -1.0 1.0 -10.0 8.0 -16.0 -20.0 N U N N U F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%