Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012024 240618 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 93.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 14.3 11.3 13.3 23.4 26.4 36.6 48.5 F F F F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 30.0 32.0 36.0 48.0 26.0 13.0 14.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 127.0 124.6 124.6 127.0 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 123.0 59.0 72.0 36.0 54.0 44.0 8.0 42.0 F N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 74.0 77.0 77.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -18.0 12.0 26.0 F N N N N VF U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 7.8% 22.1% 15.0% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 9.8% 7.0% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 9.8% 5.8% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 9.8% 5.3% 45kt / 36h 10.2% 20.8% 15.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.1% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 15.1% 13.2% 14.1% 70kt / 48h 7.4% 6.7% 7.1% 65kt / 72h 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.44 AL012024 240618 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 93.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 14.3 11.3 13.3 23.4 26.4 36.6 48.5 U U U U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 74.0 77.0 77.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -18.0 12.0 26.0 U N N N N VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%