Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  12.2  10.5  16.3  28.3  36.3  35.4  35.4  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  34.0  43.0  41.0  13.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 130.0 129.3 127.0 124.6 127.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  86.0  23.0  56.0  65.0   6.0 -12.0 -12.0  F  F  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -8.0  -9.0   4.0  -4.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  F  F  N  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       25.2%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       11.2%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       11.1%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       11.1%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       20.9%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        8.1%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        3.8%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        4.7%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 AL012024 240618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  12.2  10.5  16.3  28.3  36.3  35.4  35.4  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -8.0  -9.0   4.0  -4.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  N  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%