Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  10.9  16.2  19.9  33.9  28.5  28.5  28.5  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  40.0  46.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 130.0 127.0 124.6 127.0 127.0 127.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  30.0  60.0  74.0  38.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -7.0  -9.0   1.0  -9.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       20.4%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.4%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.2%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.2%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       13.8%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        5.8%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.7%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        5.7%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 AL012024 240618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  10.9  16.2  19.9  33.9  28.5  28.5  28.5  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -7.0  -9.0   1.0  -9.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%