Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  15.0  20.0  23.4  29.8  35.6  35.6  35.6  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  35.0  44.0  45.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 127.0 124.6 127.0 127.0 127.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  60.0  92.0  81.0  26.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0   0.0   1.0  -8.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  F  F  N  N  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       19.1%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        7.8%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        7.5%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.5%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       13.0%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        5.0%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        3.1%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL012024 240619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  15.0  20.0  23.4  29.8  35.6  35.6  35.6  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0   0.0   1.0  -8.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%